The world is currently experiencing a significant geopolitical churn, with the old order breaking down and a new one emerging. This is not a unique phenomenon, as history has witnessed numerous instances of such shifts. One such episode occurred exactly 1,000 years ago, in 1025, when the great king Rajendra Chola of the Chola Empire in southern India launched a naval raid on Southeast Asia.
At that time, the world economy was centred around three major nodes: the Fatimid Empire in Egypt, the Chola Empire in southern India, and the Song Empire in China. These nodes were heavily engaged in maritime trade, with Indian merchant guilds, such as the Manigram and the 500, playing a significant role. These guilds were not dissimilar to modern multinational corporations, with operations spanning the globe and their own navies to protect against pirates.
The Indian economy’s dominance of world trade was not solely due to domestic production but also because of its control of global trade routes. The Chola Empire’s economic interests were threatened when the Sumatran kingdom, which controlled the Malacca Strait, was defeated by the Javan kingdom, and the Chinese provided support to the Sumatrans. The Cholas responded by sending a warning raid in 1017, but the Sumatrans ignored it, leading to a full-scale naval raid by Rajendra Chola in 1025.
The Chola navy, likely comprised of ships from the merchant guilds, sailed from Nagapatnam to Sumatra, then to the Sunda Strait, where they refuelled with their Javan allies. They proceeded to sack the ports of the Sumatran kingdom, ultimately destroying their army and forcing them to negotiate a joint embassy with the Cholas and the Chinese.
This episode highlights two crucial lessons. Firstly, economic power and military power are intertwined, and a nation cannot have one without the other. Secondly, even with geopolitical rivals, it is possible to enter into understandings and agreements when there are shared economic interests.
However, the Indian economic system that enabled such dominance eventually fell apart in the early 13th century, when the three nodes of economic power were sacked by raiders from Central Asia. The Mongols destroyed the Song Empire in China, while the Turks sacked India, and the Middle East was thrown into upheaval. The temples that served as the financial backbone of the Indian economy were also destroyed, leading to a decline in Indian economic power.
Centuries later, the Chinese, under the Ming Empire, attempted to project power into the Indian Ocean. Admiral Zheng He, a eunuch, led a series of massive naval expeditions, with ships that were technologically advanced and crewed by thousands of sailors, soldiers, and merchants. The Chinese navy sailed to Indonesia, Sri Lanka, India, Africa, and Arabia, signalling China’s return as a major power.
However, the Chinese navy’s power was eventually undermined by internal dynamics, as the Confucian bureaucrats, who were suspicious of the eunuchs, cut off funding and support. The navy rotted in port, and the records of Zheng He’s voyages were suppressed. The Chinese withdrawal from the Indian Ocean created a vacuum that was filled by the Portuguese, who arrived with just three ships but were able to dominate the region within a decade or two.
This episode highlights the importance of internal dynamics and the dangers of bureaucratic infighting. It also underscores the need for nations to engage with the world and project power, rather than retreating behind walls. The decline of the Chinese navy and the failure of the Vijayanagar Empire to fill the power vacuum in the Indian Ocean led to the colonization of India by European powers.
Today, the world is facing a similar period of uncertainty, with the old order breaking down and a new one emerging. India, as an emerging power, must navigate this environment with caution and flexibility. The country must recognize that different fields of power are intertwined and that an all-of-nation approach is necessary to deal with the challenges ahead.
World power dynamics are unpredictable, and it is futile to try to predict the future. Instead, India must focus on building its internal resilience and developing policies that are flexible and adaptable to changing circumstances. The country must be willing to act opportunistically when opportunities arise and must not confuse the concept of self-reliance with an inward-looking approach.
India’s growth and development must be outward-oriented, with a focus on capturing export markets, building geopolitical linkages, and pursuing national interests. The country must be willing to use its strengths to achieve its goals, rather than simply relying on domestic production. By adopting this approach, India can navigate the complexities of the emerging world order and achieve its aspirations of becoming a great power.
Reference: World Order Influx: Lessons from History by Sanjeev Sanyal – Speech at the Nationalist Conclave 2025
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